{"id":134,"date":"2008-06-13T12:52:17","date_gmt":"2008-06-13T11:52:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/newth.net\/2050\/?p=134"},"modified":"2008-06-13T12:52:17","modified_gmt":"2008-06-13T11:52:17","slug":"to-metoder-to-mulige-utfall-av-usa-valget","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/2008\/06\/13\/to-metoder-to-mulige-utfall-av-usa-valget\/","title":{"rendered":"To metoder, to mulige utfall av USA-valget"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Den 12. juni sa forutsigelsesmarkedet <a href=\"http:\/\/www.intrade.com\/\/?request_operation=main&amp;request_type=action&amp;checkHomePage=true\">Intrade Prediction Markets<\/a> at Barack Obama med stor sannsynlighet (61,2 %) vil vinne valget over John McCain (34,1 %) i presidentvalget i USA. Da det er summen av handlingene (kj\u00f8p og salg) til tusenvis av ikke-spesialister som angir trenden her, er dette et eksempel p\u00e5 forutsigelse etter prinsippet om &#8220;bottom-up&#8221;, eller nedenfra-og-opp.<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/newth.net\/eirik\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/06\/prediction-market.png\"><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/newth.net\/eirik\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/06\/prediction-market.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-135\" title=\"prediction-market\" src=\"http:\/\/newth.net\/eirik\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/06\/prediction-market.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"412\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Samme dag mente <a href=\"http:\/\/www.npr.org\/news\/specials\/election2008\/2008-election-map.html#\/president-nprOvM\/\">National Public Radios analytiker<\/a> at John McCain ligger best an, noe nedenst\u00e5ende delstatsoversikt viser. Metoden er i dette tilfellet &#8220;top-down&#8221;, eller ovenfra-og-ned, da det er \u00e9n h\u00f8yt kvalifisert journalist eller <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dagbladet.no\/nyheter\/2008\/06\/15\/538275.html\">samfunnsviter<\/a> som har laget oversikten.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/newth.net\/eirik\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/06\/npr-pres.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-140 aligncenter\" title=\"npr-pres\" src=\"http:\/\/newth.net\/eirik\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/06\/npr-pres.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"446\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">Fasit, og dermed en test p\u00e5 <a href=\"http:\/\/newth.net\/2050\/2008\/05\/16\/long-bets-veddemal-om-spadommer\/\">forutsigelsesmarkeders rykte for \u00e5 treffe godt<\/a> i amerikanske presidentvalg, har vi alts\u00e5 den 5. november i h\u00f8st.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Den 12. juni sa forutsigelsesmarkedet Intrade Prediction Markets at Barack Obama med stor sannsynlighet (61,2 %) vil vinne valget over John McCain (34,1 %) i presidentvalget i USA. Da det er summen av handlingene (kj\u00f8p og salg) til tusenvis av&#8230; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/2008\/06\/13\/to-metoder-to-mulige-utfall-av-usa-valget\/\">Continue Reading &rarr;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[117,29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-134","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forutsigelse","category-politikk"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=134"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/134\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=134"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=134"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=134"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}