{"id":72,"date":"2008-04-28T05:46:27","date_gmt":"2008-04-28T04:46:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/newth.net\/2050\/?p=72"},"modified":"2008-04-28T05:46:27","modified_gmt":"2008-04-28T04:46:27","slug":"rever-er-bedre-spamenn-enn-pinnsvin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/2008\/04\/28\/rever-er-bedre-spamenn-enn-pinnsvin\/","title":{"rendered":"Rever er bedre sp\u00e5menn enn pinnsvin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Long Now Foundation podcaster sv\u00e6rt interessante foredrag under tittelen <a href=\"http:\/\/www.longnow.org\/projects\/seminars\/\">Seminars About Long Term Thinking<\/a> (<a href=\"http:\/\/www.longnow.org\/projects\/seminars\/podcast.php\">podcast<\/a>). Et av disse er <em>Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs<\/em> (<a href=\"http:\/\/media.longnow.org\/seminars\/salt-020070126-tetlock\/salt-020070126-tetlock-web.ogg\">Vorbis<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/media.longnow.org\/seminars\/salt-020070126-tetlock\/salt-020070126-tetlock-web.mp3\">MP3<\/a>) med psykologen <a href=\"http:\/\/www.haas.berkeley.edu\/faculty\/tetlock.html\">Philip Tetlock<\/a>., forfatter av boka<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Expert-Political-Judgment-Good-Know\/dp\/0691123020\"><em><span class=\"asinTitle\"> <span id=\"btAsinTitle\">Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/a><strong class=\"asinTitle\"><span id=\"btAsinTitle\"> <\/span><\/strong> Utgangspunktet for hans tittel er <a href=\"http:\/\/www.kheper.net\/topics\/typology\/Fox_and_Hedgehog.html\">et munnhell<\/a> av den greske dikteren Arkhilokhos, som sa at &#8220;rever kan mange ting, men pinnsvin kan \u00e9n stor ting&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><a href=\"http:\/\/newth.net\/eirik\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/04\/033hedgehog.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-76\" title=\"Pinnsvin\" src=\"http:\/\/newth.net\/2050\/wp-content\/uploads\/2008\/04\/033hedgehog-300x225.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"225\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Omsatt til futurolog-termer: et pinnsvin har gjerne stor ekspertkunnskap om ett emne, eller er fundamentert i en klar visjon av virkeligeheten (en overbevist marxist eller nykonservativ, for eksempel), og har en tendens til \u00e5 se framtiden i lys av dette. Det gir dem if\u00f8lge Tetlock selvtilliten til \u00e5 sjanse p\u00e5 mer oppsiktsvekkende forutsigelser. N\u00e5r pinnsvin likevel ender opp med \u00e5 score lavere enn rever i gjennomsnitt, skyldes det prisen de betaler for \u00e5 ta sjanser &#8211; de kommer gjerne med\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/blog.longnow.org\/2007\/01\/27\/philip-tetlock-ignore-confident-forecasters\/\">mange sp\u00e5dommer som aldri sl\u00e5r til<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The value of Hedgehogs is that they occasionally get right the farthest-out predictions\u2014 civil war in Yugoslavia, Saddam\u2019s invasion of Kuwait, the collapse of the Internet Bubble.  But that comes at the cost of a great many wrong far-out predictions\u2014 Dow 36,000, global depression, nuclear attack by developing nations.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Rever har gjerne et bredere fundament, forf\u00f8lger en rekke faglige interesser og er mindre innstilt p\u00e5 \u00e5 se verden i lys av \u00e9n hovedvisjon. Sp\u00e5dommene de kommer med har ofte forbehold og kan virke vage, men over tid scorer de statistisk sett bedre. Den n\u00e5v\u00e6rende situasjonen i Irak, uten en klar vinner etter fem \u00e5rs krig og en s\u00e6rdeles usikker framtid, er et territorium der rever kan treffe bedre enn pinnsvin p\u00e5 de politiske fl\u00f8yene. Tetlocks konklusjon:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The political expert who bores you with an cloud of \u201chowevers\u201d is probably right about what\u2019s going to happen.  The charismatic expert who exudes confidence and has a great story to tell is probably wrong.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Long Now Foundation podcaster sv\u00e6rt interessante foredrag under tittelen Seminars About Long Term Thinking (podcast). Et av disse er Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs (Vorbis, MP3) med psykologen Philip Tetlock., forfatter av boka Expert Political Judgment: How&#8230; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/2008\/04\/28\/rever-er-bedre-spamenn-enn-pinnsvin\/\">Continue Reading &rarr;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[104,5,29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-72","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-demografi","category-fremtiden","category-politikk"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=72"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/72\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=72"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=72"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.newth.net\/eirik\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=72"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}